mardi 24 mars 2015

Probability Trees in Java



I want to write a Hearthstone RNG calculator.


Hopefully, to those that have played the game - this will make a little bit of sense - to those that haven't - sorry! :)


The Problem



The enemy has 4 minions with health [1, 3, 4, 20]


Once the health of an enemy reaches 0 they are considered destroyed and are removed from play (for example - it is impossible for minions to have -1 health)


Once a minion is destroyed/removed from play it cannot be targeted by any more missiles.


I cast the spell Avenging Wrath - which generates 8 separate, random missiles which can hit any of the 4 targets.


Each missile deals exactly 1 damage.



How can I work out the probability that say, the minion with 3 health dies? [x, 0, x, x] How likely is it that it none of them die? [1, 3, 4, 12]


I imagine I will need to use decision trees calculate the outcome after each possible missile hit.


Any chance anyone can point me in the right direction?




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